Market Update for a few popular Frederick Communities

Here’s a snapshot of housing market activity across Frederick County as of January 21st 2008. If you would like a more in depth look at a community or one that is not listed please contact me.
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A glance at 2007 Market Conditions

The Frederick market has seen better days. 2007 wasn’t one of them. It wasn’t a complete failure for the housing market. It really started out strong at the beginning of the year but really tapered off the second half.

Here are some some stats that I have pulled off of MRIS and FCAR websites. Monthly, Metropolitan Regional Information Systems and Frederick County Association of REALTORS® provide statistics to their members and to the public. Everyone likes to know what is happening in the real estate market…of course the media loves to generalize the whole nation. But you have to understand that real estate is always local. The numbers I am supplying you here, might not apply to other parts of Maryland.

You can see the prices fluctuated over the last three years have actually remained the same. However 2007 is closing in on 2004′s average price just above $300,000.

As you can see as stated above, the prices really have remained pretty flat for the last couple years. Depending on what expert you listen to, the market in my opinion is going to stick around here for sometime. I would believe by the end of 2008 to 2009 will we start to see an increase in prices again. (Just my humble opinion as I see it today.)

Big jump in the Average Days on Market over the last few years.

The average number of sold home have dropped considerably over the last few years.

Well there you have it. The numbers don’t lie, we haven’t had the best of times lately in the market. I must reiterate what I have said in the past…it hasn’t been the best for sellers that have just purchased their home in the last couple years. You still have equity in your home if you purchased prior to 2004 providing you didn’t already spend it in form of a Home Equity Line of credit (HELOC) That seems to be a common complaint…I am losing money. Really your not, you have chose to spend it already.

Buyers this is truly your time to buy. So I will leave you with this… a look at the history of the Interest rates over the last 30 years.

What’s happening with the Condos in Frederick now

You remember my post about the condos from last month. Well, it’s a new year and there has been some major drops in the over inventory. I wanted to see the impact it had on the condos. Frederick County dropped 200 homes from last month according to my tracking. As of today, there are active 1840 homes on the MRIS MLS today. (1/7/08)

Frederick Condo Market 1/7/08

Condo Assoc.	Active	Contract	Sold in last 90 Days	Price Range
Ambertowne	11	1	2	109,900-159,900
8th St Mews	7	1	2	189,900-219,900
Creekside Plaza	9	O	O	397,900-1,180,000
Jefferson Chase	9	O	1	159,900-202,900
Mill Crossing	12	O	1	209,900-249,900
Maxwell Place	4	O	1	325,000-673,750
Monacacy Overlook	4	O	O	190,000-205,000
Old Farm Station	7	O	4	155,000-235,000
Ridgeview II	5	1	3	215,000-260,000
Springridge	6	1	3	225,000-249,900
Wormans Mill	6	O	1	239,900-369,900
All Frederick County	142	13	44	115,000-1,180,000

There was a drop of 16 condos in the active column (about a 10% drop.) But they didn’t convert to sales or contracts. The sales were relatively the same. The listing either expired or they decided to withdraw from the market. The market overall on New Years day seen a 10% drop in inventory. I am guessing the listings all expired on 12/31/07.

There has been little or no movement in the pricing. The biggest drop has been at the Jefferson Chase Condos. They lowered the high-end. The new Condos out at Old Farm Station and Riverview II are still the fasted movers right now. Springridge is not too far behind. My guess is the prices is key for Old Farm Station while Brand New is a key selling point for Riverview II

Farewell to 2007 Housing Market in Frederick

Today is the last day of 2007. We say goodbye to a year that has brought us joy, pain, and all of the other roller coaster analogies you can think of… We have watched the prices drop almost 1-1.5% a month in the housing market. We have watched interest rates have some fluctuation, but still remain at all time low.

The only time mortgages were cheaper than they are now was four years ago, when 30-year rates briefly bottomed out at an average 5.28% — the lowest they’ve been since Interest.com (and its print predecessors) began its weekly survey of major lenders in 1985. (ref: Baltimore Sun)

We have had a gamut of predictions for 2007 and will continue to see them for 2008 from the NAR Chief Economist Lawerence Yun (remind you he is on the payroll to keep the rank and file enthused about the industry.)

“The improvement in the Northeast reaffirms a trend apparent for some months now that shows signs of recovery, noteworthy because that was the first region to slump, and the gain in the West indicates some easing of interest rates for jumbo loans,” Yun said. “Lawmakers need to understand that raising the loan limits on FHA and GSE-backed conventional loans will markedly improve mortgage availability.”

There will always be a debate on the creditability of the predictions, but it is just that a prediction.

Thank goodness for local real estate blogs to provide cogent, pertinent analysis. The credibility of the NAR’s economist is whittled away every day by himself and real analyses. Here is the most recent “forecast.”

The weather man predict the weather everyday, with a little more accuracy, but you get my drift. I prefer to stick my finger out the window to see if it’s raining. Real estate will always be local… (Kinda like what Jim said above.) One of the reasons blogging has become so popular, local REALTOR®, local information and not a pre-empted positive spin. I don’t want to mislead anyone…just calling it like I see it. You may not like what I have to tell you, but you can guarantee it will be what is going on in the neighborhood.

Today, I am not going to stand on a soapbox and make my Real Estate predictions…Because they have been made all year in a previous posts and still stands true today. I especially stand behind this one used from my good friend in Eastern Connecticut, Linda Davis -

I will say that the holidays have helped lower the inventory just a little, but I imagine that all the sellers that pulled out late this fall will try it again in the Spring. Stay tuned for another increase in the inventory. Here are a few tips that still stand true for 2008:

• Casual Dress Friday or is it -Staging your home

• An Open letter to the Sellers in Frederick County

• What is your definition of a bad housing market?

Sellers need to get serious about selling their home. To coin a phrase from another local real estate agent in Bonita Springs – Chris Griffith “You can’t sell a $100 bill for $125!” Pricing is everything. Foreclosures are becoming ramped compared to what we have been used to…this will be affecting your appraisal and what the buyers mortgage will be. Buyers are now more qualified than ever, but they are running scared. Remember this is not day trading, you are buying a home for the long haul. Homes have appreciated for the last 5-10 years. It is only recent homes that were purchased around 2004-2006 that have depreciated when they were sold. Think about it…they unfortunately purchased at the peak of the market…they could have never predicted this quick decline, nor have none they needed to sell so quickly. To create a successful sale, the buyers still need to get off the fence…

Sounds simple enough?

Have a safe New Year Eve and I will catch you back here next year.

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