A peek into the Frederick Condo Market

There have been some drastic changes in the condo market over the past year.  I have been watching them for some time now.  Fortunately, we have a much lower inventory.  Too many condos (homes) pollute the market and make buyer decisions tough.  It is in our nature to want to make sure we got the best deal out there especially when we are about to make one of the biggest financial decisions of our life.   So, with all these homes out there, buyers will want to see most of them.

Of course, the key elements in this decision is always the same.  Does it look good (in good shape?)  Is it priced right?  And do I like the location?  Not necessarily in that order, but they are at the top of the list.  Sellers take note…Tip top shape, price aggressively, unfortunately you can’t move it, so over do the other two.

Here is what the condo market around Frederick looked like back in April of last year.

Frederick Condo Market 4/7/08

Condo Assoc.	Active	Contract	Sold in last 90 Days	Price Range
Ambertowne	6	1	2	113,000-159,900
8th St Mews	5	2	1	189,900-219,900
Creekside Plaza	5	O	O	397,900-1,180,000
Jefferson Chase	4	O	O	149,900-192,900
Mill Crossing	13	O	1	209,900-269,900
Maxwell Place	5	O	1	325,000-673,750
Monacacy Overlook	6	O	O	174,900-215,000
Old Farm Station	12	O	1	179,900-250,000
Ridgeview II	10	O	1	210,000-250,000
Springridge	6	1	2	175,000-249,900
Wormans Mill	8	O	O	234,000-369,900
All Frederick County	171	15	30	115,000-1,180,000

Now note some of the differences in today’s numbers.  You will see that prices have dropped dramatically in some places and in places that have not made price adjustments, they are still have no activity.

Frederick Condo Market 2/9/09

Condo Assoc.	Active	Contract	Sold in last 90 Days	Price Range
Ambertowne	11	1	2	74,900-134,900
8th St Mews	0	1	2	184,900-199,900
Creekside Plaza	4	1	O	397,900-990,000
Jefferson Chase	5	1	O	145,000-165,900
Mill Crossing	4	O	O	184,400-193,100
Maxwell Place	3	1	O	274,900-449,900
Monacacy Overlook	4	O	O	139,900-189,900
Old Farm Station	7	2	O	119,900-199,000
Ridgeview II	5	O	O	155,000-255,000
Springridge	4	1	2	199,900-242,000
Wormans Mill	3	O	2	194,900-364,900
All Frederick County	117	16	25	74,900-990,000

Now this table is not all inclusive of all the Condo Subdivisions.  If you are looking for Ballenger Creek, Echo Glen, Stuart Mechanic, Waterside and others.  You can check out this list of condo activity from my MLS Metropolitan Regional Information System.

Of course, if you don’t find what you are looking for, contact me and I will gladly assist you in the search for your next home.

Bob

2008 in a handbag – Where has the year gone?

Some of the year end numbers have finally posted and what a year it has been.  The actual totals will be all available next month for close out purposes, but I have pulled some of the statistics from MLS myself.  The December Housing report for Frederick is done and you can see it here.  We finished on a positive note with a 32% increase in Contracts over last year.  Inventory levels are promising as well by show less than last years trends.  Sales were only off by 6.5% from last year.  Will this carry over into 2009?  Sure it will.  I am sure we will see some flashes of hope with some discouragement, but we will make it through the end of the housing bust.

This wasn’t a bad year for me nor has it been a great year.  There were approximately 1300 REALTORS® in Frederick County (not counting the agents from adjoining counties that do business here) prying for almost 2100 sales in 2008.  (I must remind you, these are not official only very close approximates.)  I was fortunate to eight sales of my own.  Majority of this year’s business for me had been below $300,000 in within walking distance to downtown Frederick.  It seemed to me the upgrade from the town house to a larger single family was very scarce.  Condo prices just weren’t low enough for sales.    But again it was the overall inventory that hampers the sales along with the large amount of short sales and foreclosures.  The tightening of the purse strings by the fearful banks didn’t help either.  But as a local appraiser has said before, it is all about the inventory levels.   We need to get below 1100 to be healthy.

This market has had it’s toll on local real estate companies as well as agents.  Plenty of local offices shut their doors or consolidated in other locations.   I have seen remodeling companies increase thier business as people are staying put in their current digs.  This market has had it’s challenges for the builders as well.  They don’t have any traffic in their developments and have had to lay off many workers.  In years past, it would take more than six months to build a house.  Now they are able to build it much quicker due to the amount of available workforce.  It is only the permitting process that slows them up.  Another reason to buy if you can do it.

Frederick County Monthly Housing Report

November is finally behind us and the report has been published.  It is not great news, but still encouraging to me.  The housing boom didn’t happen over night and we shouldn’t expect the fix happen any quicker. We couldn’t ask for any better conditions for the lurking buyers out there.  One of the biggest concerns in the buyers (outside of will I have a job;) is this the best price or will prices continue to drop?  If we could answer that, we would all be rich.  The buyers and sellers in early 2000s thought it would never end.  But rest assured, if we are not at the bottom, we are definitely near it.  We will really only know when it is in the rear view mirror. Once everyone gets out of the mindset that home ownership is not a “day trader” strategy, but a long term commitment, we should be just fine. People normally live in their homes 3-7 years.  Normal appreciation in the area prior to this debacle was in the 6% range.

Housing will have its ups and downs, but just not the extreme peaks and valleys that we have been experiencing these past few years.  So with the prices bottoming out, we have another part of the puzzle that helps buyers…4.5% interest rates on 30 year fixed loans.  (you can watch the rates on my side bar to the right)  Never in our history has interest rates been this low. Sellers should be preparing there homes for showings as activity starts to pick up.  With inventory still high, sellers need to stand out in the crowd.

Now what’s happening…

This report is courtesy of Frederick County Association of REALTORS®.

For the most part you can see we didn’t have any earth shatter months in sales.  The chart represents contract.  The reality of things, not all contracts result in sales.  We owe the majority of this fall thru to short sales.  The buyers usually bail out before the bank has an answer.  I am enlightened to see that we are not far off last years numbers.  That gap is closing and should be an increase sometime soon.

With that said…contact your lender and let’s go looking for a helluva deal.

Surrounding County Market Updates

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac get bailed out along with some other major companies, while we are fighting paycheck to paycheck here on ground level with all the other economic woes.  Maybe the government will bail out our deficit too.  OK, that’s not going to happen.  We will only reap some of the  benefits as these giants get back on track.   But in the mean time we still have to deal with the reality of the market around us.

Today I will show you not only Frederick County numbers on what is going on here but a look at adjoining counties.  Remember this is a snap shot in time and can change moments and days from now.  The true test of numbers will be to see what direction they are going six months from now.  I am positive that most of the inventory will drop between now and the New Year, only because it does every year.  More and more people tend to take their property off the market and wait until spring again.

Also included will be the number of Foreclosures and bank owned properties.  With the latest LIBOR rates adjustment, I am sure we will see some impact to the Short Sales and foreclosure list.

County Housing Market

	Cont <7 days	New	Condos	Town Home	SFH	Total	Sold 30 days		Pre	Auction	Bank Owned
Frederick	40	23	171	505	1376	2134	165		253	80	140
Washington	20	9	39	157	995	1347	60		123	24	160
Allegany	9	5	1	7	405	458	41		26	5	25
Franklin, PA	14	15	9	142	1007	1299	89		4	1	0

I am surprised to see the activity just across the line in Pennsylvania.  I haven’t watch much of that market lately.  So this little exercise was eye opening for me also.  It seems they haven’t been plagued by the large number of foreclosures as we have in our area.  It also appears that Allegany county is holding their own also with almost 10% of their inventory selling in the last 30 days.  The inventory in Frederick county is starting to show signs of the season.  The total number of homes is down almost 10% from 2320 from the beginning of the month.  We should probably see this trend continue through the end of the year.  My guess is that we will see our inventory somewhere in the 1800s.  Check back in December to see if I am close.

The lending practices have definitely changed and will only lend money to qualified buyers this time.  Interest rates have been stable (for now) and housing prices have been pretty competitive.  There have been plenty of indicators that the worse is behind us, but we truly won’t know.  You might already be looking in the rear view mirror at the best Buyer’s Market in a very long time.

If you think you are ready, my phone is always on.

Have a great day.

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