The latest Absorption Rates in Frederick County

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$the ground can\'t absorb any more water nor for sale homes.$

A few months ago, I introduced you to the term - Absorption Rate. Basically, if we stop putting new homes on the market, how long would it take to sell all the homes. It’s like an old retail term “Inventory Turns” Very similarly, you have holding cost and depreciation that affects the housing inventory. The only problem with housing inventory, you can’t remove old stock…some homes stay much longer than the rest of the homes. This is usually the case for over priced homes, undesirable locations, or deplorable conditions. (All of which can be overseen with the right price.)

The activity across the state seems to have increased, as expected with the “Spring Market.” The increase in inventory had a negative impact on all the Absorption rates. The rate of sales was not directly proportionate to the increase of number homes. The Middletown and Walkersville area had the largest increase of 4 more months. The question is, will these homes clear out through attrition or sales by the end of summer? Historically the inventory peaks around July then lies flat for a few months, and then decreases into the winter. So, it will be easy to predict the inventory will go down, but we need the number of sales to remain the same or even increase. (I know, duh!)

The news media is starting to see an indicator of an end to the housing crisis and there are signs that some buyers are finally realizing the prices are just right for them. Let’s hope that the lending industry helps QUALIFIED buyers get into loans. It is truly not over until the last foreclosure hits the market from all the ARM resets from all the over extended buyers. Buyers of today have been one of the most qualified set of buyers that most have seen in a long time. (lenders running scared)

Anyways…here’s the chart of local and adjoining activity.

Absorptions in and around Frederick County 5/27/08

Area	Active	Contract	Sold in last 90 Days	Absorption Rate
Adamstown & Point of Rocks	35	15	7	9 Months
Brunswick & Knoxville	76	15	18	12 Months
Frederick	1234	237	303	12 Months
Ijamsville	50	4	11	18 Months
Middletown & Myersville	157	22	30	17 Months
New Market	147	25	35	14 Months
Thurmont & Emmitsburg	118	21	31	14 Months
Walkersville & Woodsboro	84	16	18	15 Months

Frederick County	2143	380	495	14 Months
Montgomery County	6122	1754	1919	11 Months
Washington County	1413	167	253	17 Months
Howard County	1976	491	625	10 Months
Carroll County	1229	219	305	13 Months
Maryland	46458	8412	10884	14 Months

Have a great day. If you are in the market to buy a home, call me…let’s talk.

May 27, 2008 · Filed Under Frederick MD Real Estate, Frederick Market Conditions, Market Condition

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Monday Market update

Supply exceeds demand period

(Still recovering from Relay for Life…)

However we still have more homes than buyers. Next week I will break down the County Absorption Rate again to see if there are any improvements.

May 19, 2008 · Filed Under Frederick Market Conditions, Market Condition

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Monday morning Market update

The sales continue to show a decrease over last year, however, on a more positive side, the decrease seems to be getting smaller. Are we finally seeing signs of the bottom of the market? A recent article in the Wall Street Journal seems to see other signs that point to a more normal market. This process didn’t happen over night so the repair is not going to happen over night.

Most people forget that the current housing bust is nearly three years old. Home sales peaked in July 2005. New home sales are down a staggering 63% from peak levels of 1.4 million. Housing starts have fallen more than 50% and, adjusted for population growth, are back to the trough levels of 1982.

I remember almost to the day when this started, I started to see signs the following weekend after the 4th of July. The showings on properties came to a screeching halt. Honestly it was like someone just flipped a switch. I had a very eager seller, and no explanation on why we went from 4-6 showings on a weekend to almost none. (his house sold almost year later for $50,000 less than what was expected.)

The county housing reports are out for April. If you have the time take a look that past reports and you will see a what I am talking about above.

If you need a closer look at a community around you, contact me for a Market Analysis.

May 12, 2008 · Filed Under Frederick MD Real Estate, Frederick Market Conditions, Market Condition

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Monday Market updates

It’s Open Mic night on Focus On Frederick…I am taking request. Where do you want to see the next weeks market update? What neighborhood? Anyone anyone at all? Just comment or send me an email. I will dig up the numbers for the community.

As for today, here is just a snap shot of the county…

Total Active Homes - 2225
New in the last 2 days - 17
Under Contract last 7 days - 40
Ave DOM for Contract Listings - 116 days
# of Listings with Various Keywords
- Short sale - 122
- Foreclosure - 15
- Bank Owned - 24
- Approval - 133
# listed as Vacant - 338

As for the keywords in the internet remarks, some of the “Short sale” listings said “THIS IS NOT A SHORT SALE” Which makes a big difference if you are buying in a hurry.

Have a great day… and stay dry.

April 21, 2008 · Filed Under Frederick MD Real Estate, Market Condition

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