The Real Estate absorption rates around Frederick County
October 21, 2008 by gotbob
Filed under Real Estate Topics
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These are some tough times in the housing market (an understatement.) We have the 700 Billion dolllar bailout buyout bailout that will help stabilize the market. We have local real estate companies closing their doors. Coldwell Banker on Patrick Street (in the plaza with Outback) made that announcement last week. They don’t have a presence in Frederick County at all now. Coldwell Banker closed their other Frederick office and the Mt Airy office last year (along with Mackintosh and Lederer & Co.) I just read this morning that a Kithchen and Bathroom business in Mt Airy is closing their doors. It is impacting all aspects of the industry. Long & Foster still has a presence in Mt Airy and Frederick with three offices, one on Buckeystown Pike, another on Kingfisher Dr off Monocacy Boulevard with the last one in Mt Airy. Long & Foster has made some adjustments through out the state as well as every business is doing now. Wes is a smart man and has had his finger on the pulse of real estate for a long time and will weather this storm as well.
With all of these changes going on, there are indicators that the market is/has bottomed out. We have been in a market decline since July 8th 2005 in my best estimates. That was the day I noticed all the showings and listing activity come to a screeching halt. For the first time in a long time we had an increase in sales in Frederick County last month. It was a 51% increase…yipee. But wait, no celebrations yet…we need at least three months of consistant increases to show that we have truly bottomed out.
Another indicator is the absorption rate, remember…the closer to six months absorptioin, the closer we are to a “normal” market. We have made some nice movement the last few months toward a normal market. If you were on the fence about the market this should help you get off the fence as a buyer. The closer this becomes a normal market, the harder it is for you the buyer to get a great deal on housing. Now, the flip side…Sellers, finally a sigh of releif that you won’t be as beat up as you have been the last year.
Below is the current chart for absorption rates in October, and the changes were compared to May of this year.
October 2008 Absorption Rates
| Area | Active | Contract | Sold in last 90 Days | Absorption Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adamstown & Point of Rocks | 43 | 6 | 12 | 11 | -2 |
| Brunswick & Knoxville | 75 | 10 | 24 | 9 | -3 |
| Frederick | 1167 | 203 | 351 | 10 | -2 |
| Ijamsville | 42 | 4 | 16 | 8 | -10 |
| Middletown & Myersville | 151 | 13 | 36 | 13 | -4 |
| New Market | 137 | 7 | 41 | 10 | -4 |
| Thurmont & Emmitsburg | 127 | 14 | 30 | 13 | -1 |
| Walkersville & Woodsboro | 96 | 14 | 34 | 8 | -7 |
| Frederick County | 2033 | 294 | 598 | 10 | -4 |
| Montgomery County | 5394 | 1322 | 2335 | 7 | -4 |
| Washington County | 1261 | 143 | 262 | 14 | -3 |
| Howard County | 1811 | 312 | 741 | 7 | -10 |
| Carroll County | 1215 | 142 | 330 | 11 | -1 |
| Maryland | 44692 | 6432 | 12002 | 11 | -3 |
There is light on the horizon…now if we can just keep everyone in financial turmoil in their homes, we would be in great shape…Uncle Sam has that under control…ahem.
Have a great day.
Bob is a licensed Real Estate agent in Maryland and Pennsylvania. You can contact him via email at bob@gotbob4homes.com or call him on his cell phone at 240-285-4918. He has been the Assistant Manager at the Mt Airy office for the past two years. Not only does he list and sell residential real estate, but can help you with your commercial real estate needs as well. He has been a resident of Frederick County for the past nine years. 
Bob Carney
You may get the award for the most blogs that I follow. Always good nuggets for the people in your market.
What I am seeing here in one of the niches I work is far less new listings are coming on the market. I showed yesterday in the New Orleans Warehouse District and Uptown areas and the total condos to show was ten. I knew that 3-4 would even make the cut.
We were able to narrow down the number to three at most.
Eric- New Orleans Condos and Loftss last blog post..Julia Place Condos-New Orleans Warehouse District- Good choice for a second home!
Thank you Eric. Good luck with your buyer, they are hard to come by now a days. I am sure your area is still developing since the storm.
Hi Bob, I subbed to your blog because anything about Frederick interests me… I’m a big fan of and booster for Frederick County. I love it here as you can tell from one of my blogs.
As I real estate newbie… I have a question:
What is the definition of “Absorption” in real estate phraseology?
is it: existing houses on the market that need to be sold before new houses can be sold?
or is it when real estate firms either merge or go out of business in our area?
I’m confused.
My daughter just bought a townhouse off New Design Road and it’s great, the neighborhood is great… I was doing the Grand daddy day care on Halloween night so my daughter and her husband could go out. Got a chance to see the entire neighborhood turn out trick r treating.
This is a really nice neighborhood and I’m glad my daughter bought this home.
David Bruces last blog post..Entrepreneurs & Small Business Owners try for Fort Detrick Contracts
Great question David and thanks for asking. Absorption is just like paper towels…under the current conditions, how long would it take for the market to absorb the inventory if no new inventory came on. I forgot to bring the definition over from the last post. The numbers represent months. A normal market is 6 months. Less than that is a sellers market and over that is a buyers market.