The latest Absorption Rates in Frederick County

A few months ago, I introduced you to the term – Absorption Rate. Basically, if we stop putting new homes on the market, how long would it take to sell all the homes. It’s like an old retail term “Inventory Turns” Very similarly, you have holding cost and depreciation that affects the housing inventory. The only problem with housing inventory, you can’t remove old stock…some homes stay much longer than the rest of the homes. This is usually the case for over priced homes, undesirable locations, or deplorable conditions. (All of which can be overseen with the right price.)

The activity across the state seems to have increased, as expected with the “Spring Market.” The increase in inventory had a negative impact on all the Absorption rates. The rate of sales was not directly proportionate to the increase of number homes. The Middletown and Walkersville area had the largest increase of 4 more months. The question is, will these homes clear out through attrition or sales by the end of summer? Historically the inventory peaks around July then lies flat for a few months, and then decreases into the winter. So, it will be easy to predict the inventory will go down, but we need the number of sales to remain the same or even increase. (I know, duh!)

The news media is starting to see an indicator of an end to the housing crisis and there are signs that some buyers are finally realizing the prices are just right for them. Let’s hope that the lending industry helps QUALIFIED buyers get into loans. It is truly not over until the last foreclosure hits the market from all the ARM resets from all the over extended buyers. Buyers of today have been one of the most qualified set of buyers that most have seen in a long time. (lenders running scared)

Anyways…here’s the chart of local and adjoining activity.

Absorptions in and around Frederick County 5/27/08

Have a great day. If you are in the market to buy a home, call me…let’s talk.

Bob is a licensed Real Estate agent in Maryland and Pennsylvania. You can contact him via email at bob@gotbob4homes.com or call him on his cell phone at 240-285-4918.  Bob left the Frederick area to manage a resort office near Deep Creek Lake in Western Maryland. He still stays in touch with the area that he has grown to love.